Superannuation, Other Assets and Retirement Incomes: Achieving Better Forecasts and Answers

The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) at the University of Canberra is actively developing models which will provide improved estimates of current and future accumulated superannuation entitlements, assets, and superannuation contributions. This paper describes three initiatives likely to be of interest to the superannuation industry. The first is a pathbreaking model of the value of the assets owned by Australians in 1993/94 – including accumulated superannuation entitlements. The second is a model that forecasts the characteristics of superannuation contributors for the next five to ten years. The third is a far more complex model that attempts to make projections of Australia’s economic, social and demographic characteristics during the next few decades. For example, this model might be used to examine the impact of non-standard labour force careers upon the superannuation of women and other groups, or to look at people’s ability to finance their own retirement. • Core funding for NATSEM is provided by the Federal Department of Health and Family Services. The model described in Section 3 was originally constructed as part of a consultancy for Prudential Corporation.